{"id":4053,"date":"2021-04-19T10:30:52","date_gmt":"2021-04-19T10:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/desteptati.ro\/?p=4053"},"modified":"2021-04-19T10:30:52","modified_gmt":"2021-04-19T10:30:52","slug":"anatomia-unui-dezastru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/desteptati-va.ro\/index.php\/2021\/04\/19\/anatomia-unui-dezastru\/","title":{"rendered":"Anatomia unui dezastru"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>15 Minute, 32 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>

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Motto: Consider revolu\u0163ia gazelor de \u015fist mai mult o petrecere de pensionari dec\u00e2t o revolu\u0163ie… Este ultima zv\u00e2cnire<\/span>. (Art Breman, geolog)<\/em><\/h3>\r\n

Ca \u015fi c\u00e2nd distrugerea Apusenilor prin \u201eproiectul Ro\u015fia Montan\u0103\u2033 nu ar fi fost de ajuns, asasinii economici, interni \u015fi externi, ai Rom\u00e2niei au mai tras c\u00e2teva gloan\u0163e \u00een trupul muribund al \u0163\u0103rii noastre \u2013 ca s\u0103 fie siguri c\u0103 victima chiar nu mai mi\u015fc\u0103. De data aceasta arma folosit\u0103 este fracturarea hidraulic\u0103. Dac\u0103 \u00een cazul Ro\u015fia Montan\u0103 au ac\u0163ionat neglijent, nu le-a p\u0103sat s\u0103 fac\u0103 pierdut\u0103 arma crimei \u015fi s\u0103 \u015ftearg\u0103 amprentele, \u00een afacerea gazelor de \u015fist se lucreaz\u0103 profesionist, cu pistolari deghiza\u0163i \u00een negustori de iluzii din Vestul S\u0103lbatic. Prin propagand\u0103 \u015fi tactici psihologice, demne de o veritabil\u0103 ac\u0163iune de psy-ops, crima comis\u0103 a fost transformat\u0103 \u00een opusul ei: o opera\u0163iune de salvare a Rom\u00e2niei din ghearele petro-imperialismului rusesc.<\/h4>\r\n

Au fost reactivate mai \u00eent\u00e2i mituri \u015fi reflexe condi\u0163ionate menite s\u0103 influen\u0163eze emo\u0163iile \u015fi comportamentele popula\u0163iei (poten\u0163ial) insurgente. Exist\u0103 termeni \u015fi sintagme care provoac\u0103 o reac\u0163ie colectiv\u0103 previzibil\u0103. \u00cen cazul gazelor de \u015fist, sintagma \u201eindependen\u0163a fa\u0163\u0103 de gazul rusesc\u201c declan\u015feaz\u0103 un reflex condi\u0163ionat de respingere a \u201edu\u015fmanului de la est\u201c. Odat\u0103 reactivat acest reflex \u00een mentalul rom\u00e2nesc, orice enormitate debitat\u0103 \u00een leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu \u201eindependen\u0163a fa\u0163\u0103 de gazul rusesc\u201c va fi acceptat\u0103 necondi\u0163ionat de c\u0103tre publicul larg. Un titlu ca \u201eMiza gazelor de \u015fist: Ru\u015fii vor avea pierderi uria\u015fe dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia devine independent\u0103 energetic\u201c (ziare.com) nu urm\u0103re\u015fte s\u0103 ofere o informa\u0163ie real\u0103, ci s\u0103 st\u00e2rneasc\u0103 o reac\u0163ie emo\u0163ional\u0103. Nu numai c\u0103 ne vom c\u00e2\u015ftiga independen\u0163a fa\u0163\u0103 de gazul rusesc, dar vom produce du\u015fmanului \u015fi \u201epierderi uria\u015fe\u201c. Termenii nu au nimic din rigoarea datelor economice, trimit \u00eens\u0103 subliminal la istoria rezisten\u0163ei noastre \u00een fa\u0163a asupritorului bol\u015fevic. C\u00e2t pierde Gazprom \u00een eventualitatea unei independen\u0163e rom\u00e2ne\u015fti fa\u0163\u0103 de gazul rusesc ne-o spune, la rece, Vocea Rusiei: \u201eCota de gaze alocate Republicii Moldova \u015fi Rom\u00e2niei reprezint\u0103 0,6% din totalul exportului anual de gaze al Gazprom. \u00cen condi\u0163iile \u00een care, \u00een prima jum\u0103tate a anului 2013, cererile de gaze din Europa c\u0103tre Gazprom au crescut cu 10%, cota de 0,6% poate fi redistribuit\u0103 de Gazprom f\u0103r\u0103 probleme Turciei sau Germaniei, \u0163\u0103ri aflate \u00een plin\u0103 expansiune economic\u0103\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n
\"Nabucco\"<\/a>
Nabucco<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Hot\u0103r\u00e2te, probabil, s\u0103-i produc\u0103 Rusiei \u201epierderi uria\u015fe\u201c, guvernele b\u0103sesciene au mizat totul pe Nabucco, un proiect occidental al c\u0103rui e\u015fec r\u0103sun\u0103tor a pus \u00een eviden\u0163\u0103 latura lui… comic\u0103. Iat\u0103 ce scria revista „Forbes” \u00een 2012: \u201eNabucco a fost \u00eentotdeauna mai mult dec\u00e2t o simpl\u0103 conduct\u0103 pentru a transporta gaz: a fost un proiect menit s\u0103 demonstreze unitatea european\u0103 \u00eempotriva manipul\u0103rilor grosolane ale petro-imperiului condus de Putin. O comedie a erorilor, jucat\u0103 de nenum\u0103rate ori, a demonstrat \u00een mod concludent incompeten\u0163a \u015fi neputin\u0163a aproape comic\u0103 a Uniunii Europene, chiar atunci c\u00e2nd este vorba de chestiuni care se presupune a avea o importan\u0163\u0103 strategic\u0103. Nabucco a fost conceput ca un proiect \u00een care europenii eficien\u0163i \u015fi moderni le vor ar\u0103ta ru\u015filor \u00eenapoia\u0163i cum se face treaba. \u00cen loc de o lec\u0163ie dat\u0103 ru\u015filor, proiectul s-a dovedit o caricatur\u0103\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

S\u0103 tot fie o caricatur\u0103 pentru anali\u015ftii de la „Forbes”, dar pentru Rom\u00e2nia e\u015fecul este ustur\u0103tor. Miz\u00e2nd totul pe Nabucco, Rom\u00e2nia a refuzat s\u0103 participe la construc\u0163ia conductei South Stream. Dac\u0103 ar fi trecut pe teritoriul Rom\u00e2niei, lungimea conductei s-ar fi scurtat cu 50% \u015fi ar fi sc\u0103zut pre\u0163urile gazului furnizat Rom\u00e2niei de c\u0103tre Gazprom. „South Stream ar fi putut reprezenta \u201ecel mai important tren care ar fi putut trece prin Rom\u00e2nia \u015fi care ne-ar fi pus \u00eenapoi pe harta Europei\u201c, consider\u0103 analistul Valentin Vasilescu, fost comandant adjunct al Aeroportului Militar Otopeni. Rom\u00e2nia a r\u0103mas \u00eens\u0103 pe peronul g\u0103rii \u00een vreme ce bulgarii, s\u00e2rbii, ungurii, slovenii, austriecii, italienii, croa\u0163ii, macedonenii, grecii \u015fi turcii s-au instalat \u00een vagoanele South Stream-ului. \u00cen contul c\u0103l\u0103toriei, Gazprom ofer\u0103 pre\u0163uri stabile la gaz cu un discount de 10%. Sunt \u015fi alte avantaje. Construc\u0163ia por\u0163iunii de conduct\u0103 de pe teritoriul bulg\u0103resc le va aduce vecinilor no\u015ftri venituri garantate de 3,1 miliarde (potrivit declara\u0163iilor f\u0103cute de ministrul bulgar al energiei, Dragomir Stoynev, din 31 octombrie 2013, la ceremonia de inaugurare a lucr\u0103rilor). P\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia va trebui s\u0103 se pronun\u0163e \u201e\u00een favoarea South Stream, pentru c\u0103 alt\u0103 alegere nu are\u201c socote\u015fte analistul azer Ilgar Velizade, citat de agen\u0163ia Regnum.<\/h4>\r\n

Nu are alegere?! O manipulare ruseasc\u0103! strig\u0103 la unison aceia\u015fi politicieni care au aplaudat proiectul Ro\u015fia Montan\u0103. Cum s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia de c\u0103ru\u0163\u0103? Nici nu-\u015fi d\u0103duse Nabucco ob\u015ftescul sf\u00e2r\u015fit, c\u0103 negustorii de iluzii s-au n\u0103pustit s\u0103 ne v\u00e2nd\u0103 \u201eulei de \u015farpe\u201c pentru vindecarea bete\u015fugurilor energetice. Leacul miraculos, pretind negustorii, nu trebuie importat de la \u201edu\u015fmani\u201c, c\u0103ci \u00eel avem noi \u00een\u015fine din bel\u015fug. Numele lui: gazul de \u015fist. Este tot gaz natural, numai c\u0103 se comport\u0103 pu\u0163in mai ciudat (de aici denumirea de gaz neconven\u0163ional): st\u0103 \u00eengropat la mare ad\u00e2ncime, la vreo doi kilometri sub terenurile agricole \u015fi gospod\u0103riile \u0163\u0103r\u0103ne\u015fti, sub p\u00e2nza freatic\u0103. Captiv \u00een rocile de \u015fist, nu vrea s\u0103 ias\u0103 la suprafa\u0163\u0103 dec\u00e2t for\u0163at prin fracturare hidraulic\u0103. Cum tehnologia miraculoas\u0103 o de\u0163in negustorii din Vestul S\u0103lbatic, ei vor scoate gazul nostru din m\u0103runtaiele p\u0103m\u00e2ntului \u015fi tot ei or s\u0103 ni-l v\u00e2nd\u0103, la pre\u0163urile de pe pia\u0163a mondial\u0103! Gazul va fi ieftin ca braga, a\u015fa cum este \u00een prezent \u00een Statele Unite.<\/h4>\r\n

Ceea ce urmeaz\u0103, dragi cititori, nu ve\u0163i afla din pliantele \u015fi prezent\u0103rile \u00een power point ale exper\u0163ilor \u00een comunicare. \u0218i nici din gura celor care le permit negustorilor de aiurea s\u0103 fractureze din teritoriul \u0163\u0103rii oric\u00e2te h\u0103lci ar vrea.<\/h4>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/h4>\r\n

Pentru a elibera gazul, rocile pu\u0163in poroase din z\u0103c\u0103mintele de \u015fist trebuie mai \u00eent\u00e2i \u201efracturate\u201c prin injectarea, la mare presiune, a unei cantit\u0103\u0163i enorme de ap\u0103 amestecat\u0103 cu peste 500 de substan\u0163e toxice \u015fi poluante. Cantitatea colosal\u0103 de ap\u0103 otr\u0103vit\u0103 \u2013 cam 19 milioane de litri de ap\u0103 sunt necesari pentru fracturarea unei singure sonde \u2013 revine \u00eentr-o propor\u0163ie \u00eensemnat\u0103 (\u00eentre 30-70%) la suprafa\u0163\u0103, unde \u00eencepe apoi odiseea depozit\u0103rii \u015fi trat\u0103rii ei. Nu este vorba de ceva \u00een genul apei reziduale menajere, ci de un cocteil de substan\u0163e radioactive \u015fi superpoluante, majoritatea \u0163inute secrete (din cauza ad\u00e2ncimii la care se folose\u015fte, apa rezidual\u0103 de fracturare este contaminat\u0103 radioactiv). Cum planul este ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 fie \u00eemp\u00e2nzit\u0103 cu sonde, la o rat\u0103 de 5-6 sonde pe kilometrul p\u0103trat, nu-i greu de imaginat c\u00e2te bazine descoperite de colectare a lichidului rezidual toxic vor exista. Nu este deloc exclus ca, pentru a maximiza profitul, parte din lichidul rezidual s\u0103 fie deversat, pe \u015fest, direct \u00een r\u00e2urile sau pe ogoarele patriei. S-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u00een SUA, de ce nu s-ar \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, unde fracturi\u015ftii sunt, dup\u0103 toate eviden\u0163ele, deasupra oric\u0103rei legi ? Oricum, sta\u0163iile de tratare a apelor reziduale din Rom\u00e2nia nu au capacitatea de a epura asemenea cocteiluri uciga\u015fe. Iar \u00eengroparea lor \u00een subsol (o metod\u0103 larg folosit\u0103) va polua mai devreme sau mai t\u00eerziu straturile de ap\u0103 freatic\u0103. Dac\u0103 la Ro\u015fia Montan\u0103 proiectul minier va concentra cianura \u00eentr-un imens lac otr\u0103vit, exploatarea gazului de \u015fist va dispersa o otrav\u0103, la fel de puternic\u0103, pe sute de kilometri p\u0103tra\u0163i, afect\u00e2nd profund s\u0103n\u0103tatea a zeci sau chiar sute de mii de rom\u00e2ni, flora \u015fi fauna s\u0103lbatic\u0103, terenurile agricole \u015fi animalele domestice. \u015ei, mai ales, va l\u0103sa o mare parte a Rom\u00e2niei f\u0103r\u0103 ap\u0103 potabil\u0103. (Acesta este doar unul dintre multiplele dezastre ecologice pe care le poate provoca fracturarea hidraulic\u0103.)<\/h4>\r\n

Gogoa\u015fa \u201eindependen\u0163ei fa\u0163\u0103 de gazul rusesc\u201c nu ofer\u0103 totu\u015fi suport propagandistic suficient pentru a justifica un act de vandalism ecologic de asemenea propor\u0163ii. Pentru a anestezia complet opinia public\u0103 rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 trebuia cultivat\u0103 admira\u0163ia necondi\u0163ionat\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de mitul \u201erevolu\u0163iei gazelor de \u015fist\u201c din SUA.<\/h4>\r\n

\u00cen esen\u0163\u0103, noul mit american se rezum\u0103 la c\u00e2teva formul\u0103ri \u015focante: 1) gazul de \u015fist schimb\u0103 regula jocului; 2) datorit\u0103 fractur\u0103rii hidraulice SUA vor avea \u00eentre o sut\u0103 \u015fi dou\u0103 sute de ani gaz ieftin \u015fi abundent; 3) SUA au descoperit echivalentul \u00een gaz a dou\u0103 Arabii Saudite; 4) SUA sunt pe cale s\u0103-\u015fi c\u00e2\u015ftige independen\u0163a energetic\u0103; 5) revolu\u0163ia gazului de \u015fist va produce o iminent\u0103 rena\u015ftere industrial\u0103. Repetate ne\u00eencetat, ca \u00eentr-un ritual magic, aceste baliverne au menirea s\u0103 anihileze orice critic\u0103 ra\u0163ional\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 incrimineze reac\u0163iile naturale de respingere ale popula\u0163iei. Prin bine cunoscutul procedeu copy-paste, propagandi\u015ftii din Rom\u00e2nia au preluat lozincile americane \u015fi le-au potrivit ca nuca \u00een perete. Efectele sunt de-a dreptul rizibile: \u201eRom\u00e2nia \u2013 viitorul Dubai al Europei?\u201c (Bogdan Chirieac), \u201e100 de ani de industrie de gaze \u00een Rom\u00e2nia\u201c (revista Partener), \u201eValorificarea gazelelor ieftine neconven\u0163ionale ar putea ajuta la reindustrializarea Rom\u00e2niei\u201c (Iulian Fota, consilier preziden\u0163ial pe probleme de securitate).<\/h4>\r\n

Mioritica \u201erevolu\u0163ie a gazului de \u015fist\u201c se anun\u0163\u0103 a fi o glum\u0103 macabr\u0103, un act de sabordare a viitorului \u0163\u0103rii, o amenin\u0163are grav\u0103 la adresa democra\u0163iei \u015fi a drepturilor umane fundamentale: inviolabilitatea propriet\u0103\u0163ii private, dreptul la ap\u0103 curat\u0103 \u015fi hran\u0103 s\u0103n\u0103toas\u0103. A\u015fa cum esen\u0163a criminal\u0103 a comunismului nu poate fi \u00een\u0163eleas\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 o analiz\u0103 a ceea ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u00een Rusia bol\u015fevic\u0103, tot a\u015fa nu vom realiza dimensiunile dezastrului ce ni se preg\u0103te\u015fte dac\u0103 nu \u015ftim ce a \u00eensemnat \u00een realitate \u201erevolu\u0163ia gazului de \u015fist\u201c din Statele Unite. Se impune, prin urmare, o dez-vr\u0103jire a \u201emiracolului american\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

Cei \u201eo sut\u0103 de ani de gaz natural\u201c din SUA sunt meni\u0163i s\u0103 umfle o nou\u0103 bul\u0103, poate mai devastatoare dec\u00e2t cea imobiliar\u0103 \u015fi, \u00een paralel, s\u0103 ofere un colac de salvare uneia dintre cele mai murdare \u015fi retrograde (la propriu \u015fi la figurat) industrii ale lumii contemporane: industria hidrocarburilor neconven\u0163ionale (gaz \u015fi petrol de \u015fist, nisipuri bituminoase).<\/h4>\r\n

Se pune \u00eentrebarea fireasc\u0103: cum au reu\u015fit exager\u0103rile \u015fi minciunile lobbyistilor \u015fi altor sus\u0163in\u0103tori ai acestei industrii s\u0103 fie crezute de o mare parte a publicului american? Campaniile agresive de PR ne ofer\u0103 un r\u0103spuns par\u0163ial. Alt\u0103 explica\u0163ie ne este dat\u0103 de refuzul politicienilor, mass-mediei \u015fi chiar al multor cet\u0103\u0163eni de r\u00e2nd de a accepta moartea visului american. \u201eRevolu\u0163ia gazului de \u015fist\u201c este paiul de care se aga\u0163\u0103 cei care nu \u00een\u0163eleg c\u0103 jocul s-a terminat. Supercomplexa civiliza\u0163ie american\u0103, construit\u0103 pe hidrocarburi ieftine \u015fi abundente, se afl\u0103 \u00een moarte clinic\u0103 \u015fi nici un remediu fantezist, precum \u0163i\u0163eiul \u015fi gazul de \u015fist nu poate men\u0163ine status quo-ul. \u00cen cartea „Too much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology and the Fate of Nation” (Prea mult\u0103 magie: speran\u0163e de\u015farte, tehnologie \u015fi soarta na\u0163iunii), James Howard Kunstler scrie c\u0103 \u201eboom-ul gazului \u015fi \u0163i\u0163eiului de \u015fist arat\u0103 c\u00e2t suntem de dispera\u0163i noi, \u00een economiile industriale, s\u0103 continu\u0103m modul de via\u0163\u0103 bazat pe combustibilii fosili \u015fi c\u00e2te alte resurse (o\u0163el, investi\u0163ii de capital) suntem preg\u0103ti\u0163i s\u0103 cheltuim pe orice ne promite o posibil\u0103 prelungire a confortului nostru\u201c. Chiar dac\u0103 \u201enu vrem s\u0103 ne g\u00e2ndim la o asemenea situa\u0163ie\u201c, remarc\u0103 acela\u015fi autor \u00een articolul „Timpul \u00eenchipuirilor”, \u201erestr\u00e2ngerea permanent\u0103 a tehno-industrialismului este necesar\u0103 deoarece principalul combustibil care alimenteaz\u0103 motoarele sale e tot mai pu\u0163in \u015fi mai scump, chiar prea scump pentru a men\u0163ine \u00een stare de func\u0163ionare infrastructura Statelor Unite\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

Au existat momente \u00een ultimii 20 de ani c\u00e2nd societatea american\u0103, for\u0163at\u0103 de realit\u0103\u0163ile din sectorul energiei, a fost pe punctul de a recunoa\u015fte adev\u0103rul despre combustibilii fosili. Pe la \u00eenceputul anilor 2000, lucrurile au luat \u00eens\u0103 o \u00eentors\u0103tur\u0103 nea\u015fteptat\u0103, care a exacerbat din nou iluziile \u015fi speran\u0163ele false.<\/h4>\r\n

Sc\u0103derea \u00eengrijor\u0103toare a produc\u0163iei conven\u0163ionale de gaz natural \u015fi cre\u015fterea dramatic\u0103 a pre\u0163urilor la acest combustibil au fost principalii factori care au creat motiva\u0163ia necesar\u0103 pentru aplicarea la scar\u0103 comercial\u0103 a fractur\u0103rii hidraulice. A extrage gaz din z\u0103c\u0103minte de \u015fist fusese considerat, p\u00e2n\u0103 atunci, o \u00eentreprindere prea pu\u0163in atr\u0103g\u0103toare din punct de vedere comercial.<\/h4>\r\n
\"Richard<\/a>
Richard Heinberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Iat\u0103 cum descrie Richard Heinberg, \u00een cartea „Ulei de \u015farpe”, \u00eenceputurile \u201erevolu\u0163iei gazelor de \u015fist\u201c: \u201eCompanii mici \u015fi mijlocii au \u00eemp\u00e2nzit zonele cu \u015fisturi din Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas \u015fi Pennsylvania, au luat bani cu \u00eemprumut, au \u00eencheiat contracte de \u00eenchiriere a terenurilor \u015fi \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 de timp scurt\u0103 au s\u0103pat zeci de mii de pu\u0163uri. Rezultatul a fost o bul\u0103 enorm\u0103 produs\u0103 de noua produc\u0163ie de gaz natural. Pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce furniz\u0103rile de gaz cre\u015fteau, cititorii de prompter (care afi\u015fa textele oferite de industria extractiv\u0103) \u015fi politicienii au \u00eenceput s\u0103 tr\u00e2mbi\u0163eze perspectiva a \u00abo sut\u0103 de ani de gaz natural\u00bb care \u00abvor schimba regula jocului\u00bb\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

\u201eRevolu\u0163ia \u015fisturilor\u201c este o \u201ebonanza temporar\u0103\u201c (J. David Hugues), un fenomen tipic de \u201eav\u00e2nt \u015fi pr\u0103bu\u015fire\u201c. S-ar fi f\u00e2s\u00e2it rapid, precum lichidul dintr-o cutie de Coca Cola la dou\u0103 minute dup\u0103 ce-ai deschis-o, dac\u0103 bula nu ar fi fost mereu alimentat\u0103 de capitalul b\u0103ncilor de investi\u0163ii \u015fi de subven\u0163iile masive oferite fracturi\u015ftilor de c\u0103tre guvernul federal \u015fi unele state americane. Ca nu cumva flac\u0103ra \u201erevolu\u0163iei\u201c s\u0103 se sting\u0103, firmelor de exploatare li s-au acordat importante derog\u0103ri de la normele ecologice. Printr-un lobby intens \u015fi un mic ajutor de la vicepre\u015fedintele american Dick Cheney (fost pre\u015fedinte, \u00eenainte de campania electoral\u0103 din anul 2000, al firmei Halliburton), exploatarea prin fracturare hidraulic\u0103 a ob\u0163inut \u201ederogarea Halliburton\u201c de la legea federal\u0103 care vegheaz\u0103 asupra calit\u0103\u0163ii apei de b\u0103ut (Clean Water Act). Drept urmare, fracturi\u015ftii nu au mai fost obliga\u0163i s\u0103 dezv\u0103luie substan\u0163ele toxice interzise pe care le folosesc. (Cum ar putea fi tratate \u00een uzinele de epurare ale ora\u015felor ni\u015fte substan\u0163e… secrete?)<\/h4>\r\n
\"Aubrey<\/a>
Aubrey McClendon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

Dar nu numai substan\u0163ele toxice folosite au r\u0103mas secrete. Investitorului naiv i s-a ascuns faptul c\u0103 exploatarea gazelor de \u015fist r\u0103m\u00e2nea, \u00een ansamblul ei, o afacere financiar neviabil\u0103. Este adev\u0103rat c\u0103 indivizi de teapa lui Aubrey McClendon, fostul pre\u015fedinte al companiei Chesapeake, s-au \u00eembog\u0103\u0163it, dar… aten\u0163ie! nu din v\u00e2nzarea gazului ci din opera\u0163iuni speculative adiacente, cum ar fi v\u00e2nzarea contractelor de concesiune a terenurilor. \u00cen iunie 2012, la New York, Rex Tillerson, pre\u015fedintele ExxonMobil, a declarat \u00een cadrul prestigiosului Consiliu pentru rela\u0163ii externe: \u201eNe d\u0103m \u015fi c\u0103ma\u015fa de pe noi (ca s\u0103 exploat\u0103m gazul de \u015fist). Nu c\u00e2\u015ftig\u0103m nici un ban. Suntem \u00eendatora\u0163i p\u00e2n\u0103 peste cap\u201c1<\/sup>.<\/h4>\r\n

Dac\u0103 afacerea gazelor de \u015fist este o afacere comercial\u0103 e\u015fuat\u0103 \u00een SUA \u2013 care sunt cauzele acestui e\u015fec? Dou\u0103 ar fi cauzele majore: una \u0163ine de domeniul geologiei, cealalt\u0103 de sectorul financiar-bancar.<\/h4>\r\n

Exploatarea gazelor de \u015fist sufer\u0103 de sindromul Reginei Ro\u015fii (dup\u0103 o replic\u0103 r\u0103mas\u0103 celebr\u0103 a personajului Regina Ro\u015fie din „Alice \u00een \u0162ara din Oglind\u0103” de Lewis Carrol: \u201eTrebuie s\u0103 fugi c\u00e2t po\u0163i de mult ca s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2i \u00een acela\u015fi loc\u201c). Fracturi\u015ftii sunt obliga\u0163i s\u0103 foreze \u00eentr-un ritm frenetic un num\u0103r din ce \u00een ce mai mare de sonde doar pentru a extrage aceea\u015fi cantitate de gaz. Rata declinului la sondele de \u015fist este de 63-85% \u00een primul an (fa\u0163\u0103 de 25-40% la gazul conven\u0163ional); cele mai productive sunt sec\u0103tuite dup\u0103 5-6 ani de exploatare (fa\u0163\u0103 de 20 de ani la gazul conven\u0163ional). \u00cen plus, vastele forma\u0163iuni de \u015fist s-au dovedit a fi s\u0103race \u00een \u201elocuri dulci\u201c (sweet spots), zone unde sondele sunt \u00eentr-adev\u0103r productive. \u00cen ciuda freneticei \u201erevolu\u0163ii a gazului de \u015fist\u201c, Statele Unite nu au putut s\u0103 ating\u0103 nici pe departe v\u00e2rful produc\u0163iei din anul 1973. Despre ce independen\u0163\u0103 energetic\u0103 vorbim?!<\/h4>\r\n

Sindromul Reginei Ro\u015fii a m\u0103rit dramatic costurile de forare \u015fi operare pentru c\u0103 i-a obligat pe fracturi\u015ftii s\u0103 dea \u00een exploatare un num\u0103r foarte mare de sonde \u2013 dou\u0103zeci de mii de sonde adi\u0163ionale \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 de zece ani (3-10 milioane dolari per sond\u0103). Dar mai mult dec\u00e2t de geologie, ei au fost m\u00e2na\u0163i de la spate de b\u0103ncile de investi\u0163ii.<\/h4>\r\n
\"Rex<\/a>
Rex Tillerson<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n

S\u0103 ne amintim ce a spus pre\u015fedintele lui ExxonMobil: \u201eSuntem \u00eendatora\u0163i p\u00e2n\u0103 peste cap\u201c. B\u0103ncile profit\u0103 oricum de pe urma \u201erevolu\u0163iei gazului de \u015fist\u201c. \u00cen faza de av\u00e2nt, prin vinderea ac\u0163iunilor la companiile supracotate la burs\u0103 iar \u00een cea de spargere a bulei, c\u00e2nd companiile se pr\u0103bu\u015fesc, profit\u0103 mai ales de pe urma fuziunilor \u015fi achizi\u0163iilor.<\/h4>\r\n

Adev\u0103rul, de pu\u0163ini \u015ftiut, este c\u0103 Wall Street-ul a promovat bula gazului de \u015fist. \u00centr-un articol de investiga\u0163ie din „New York Times”(\u201eDup\u0103 boom-ul gazului de \u015fist\u201c, 20 octombrie 2012), Clifford Krauss \u015fi Eric Lipton au dezv\u0103luit modul \u00een care \u201efinan\u0163area creatoare\u201c i-a for\u0163at pe fracturi\u015fti s\u0103 tot sape noi sonde chiar dac\u0103 fiecare nou\u0103 sond\u0103 \u00eensemna pentru ei o pierdere financiar\u0103: \u201ePrecum recenta bul\u0103 a creditului imobiliar, av\u00e2ntul \u015fi pr\u0103bu\u015firea (boom and bust) din cadrul afacerilor cu gaz de \u015fist este generat \u00een mare parte de ingineriile financiare ale b\u0103ncilor de investi\u0163ii precum Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Jefferies & Company\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

\u00cen raportul \u201e\u015eistul \u015fi Wall Street-ul: A fost orchestrat\u0103 sc\u0103derea pre\u0163urilor la gazul natural?\u201c2<\/sup>, Deborah Rogers, fost consultant financiar pe Wall Street \u015fi membru al Consiliului consultativ al B\u0103ncii Rezervelor Federale din Dallas \u00eentre 2008 \u015fi 2011, analizeaz\u0103 a\u015fa-numita \u201eco-dependen\u0163\u0103\u201c toxic\u0103 dintre marile b\u0103nci de investi\u0163ii \u015fi operatorii de gaz \u015fi petrol de \u015fist. Rogers este de p\u0103rere c\u0103 supraproduc\u0163ia de gaz a fost \u00een mare parte orchestrat\u0103 \u201epentru a atinge \u0163intele de produc\u0163ie ale anali\u015ftilor financiari \u015fi pentru a furniza banii cash necesari men\u0163inerii pozi\u0163iilor imprudente ale operatorilor\u201c. C\u00e2nd pre\u0163ul gazului natural s-a pr\u0103bu\u015fit, \u201eWall Street-ul a \u00eenceput s\u0103 \u00eencheie tranzac\u0163ii prin care activele companiilor de gaz de \u015fist aflate \u00een dificultate au fost transferate marilor juc\u0103tori ai industriei. La numai c\u00e2teva luni, astfel de tranzac\u0163ii s-au dovedit a fi toxice, rezultatul fiind o renun\u0163are masiv\u0103 la activele de gaz de \u015fist. \u00cen plus, b\u0103ncile au avut un rol primordial \u00een inventarea unor produse financiare complicate precum PVP-urile (volumetric production payments); \u00een ciuda lipsei evidente de cuno\u015ftin\u0163e solide ale multor investitori \u015fi a riscurilor exploat\u0103rilor de \u015fist, aceste produse au fost ulterior v\u00e2ndute unor investitori precum fondurile de pensii. Mai mult, contractele de concesionare au fost puse la un loc, incluz\u00e2nd \u00een acela\u015fi \u201epachet\u201c zone f\u0103r\u0103 rezerve certe, toate v\u00e2ndute \u00eentr-un proces foarte asem\u0103n\u0103tor celui prin care, \u00eenainte de 2007, instrumentele financiare de credit, garantate de fonduri de ipoteci (mortgage-backed securities) au fost v\u00e2ndute \u00een baza unor active imobiliare \u00eendoielnice\u201c.<\/h4>\r\n

*<\/strong>Majoritatea anali\u015ftilor independen\u0163i consider\u0103 c\u0103, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2017, exploatarea gazelor de \u015fist din SUA va intra \u00eentr-un rapid \u015fi ireversibil declin. \u201eRevolu\u0163ia\u201c se va \u00eencheia probabil la fel de brusc precum a \u00eenceput. Dezastrul ecologic, social \u015fi economic l\u0103sat \u00een urma ei este deja o alt\u0103 poveste.<\/h4>\r\n

Rom\u00e2nia, \u00eens\u0103, pare ner\u0103bd\u0103toare s\u0103 preia \u015ftafeta e\u015fecului american.<\/h4>\r\n\r\n
\r\n\r\n

[1] \u201cExxonMobil: \u2018We\u2019re Losing Our Shirts\u2019,\u201d gCaptain (blog), June 27, 2012, http:\/\/ gcaptain.com\/ exxonmobil-were-losing-shirts\/.<\/h4>\r\n

[2] Deborah Rogers, \u201cShale and Wall Street,\u201d http:\/\/ shalebubble.org\/ wp-content\/ uploads\/ 2013\/ 02\/ SWS-report-FINAL.pdf.<\/h4>\r\n

Sursa: www.cotidianul.ro<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/h4>
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